The BJP’s technique of banking on a US major-fashion marketing campaign with PM Modi as its poster boy paid its wealthy political dividends. The social gathering ended up profitable 303 out of the 543 Lok Sabha seats and got here throughout as an unstoppable drive.
Because the Modi authorities completes two years of its second time period, let’s examine how did the momentum of Lok Sabha victory maintain in the state elections that adopted.
The numbers do not fairly paint a rosy – or let’s consider a saffron – image for the BJP.
For the reason that 2019 Lok Sabha elections, 10 states or Union Territories have gone to polls.
Of those, the BJP has managed to win simply 4 assembly elections – that too with the assistance of its allies.
2019: Double Whammy
Simply months after its triumph in the final election, the BJP suffered a double electoral blow when it misplaced energy in each Jharkhand and Maharashtra.
A robust wave of anti-incumbency in opposition to the Raghubar Das-led dispensation value the BJP dearly in Jharkhand.
In Maharashtra, the BJP emerged as the one largest social gathering however didn’t retain energy as its ally Shiv Sena broke ranks with the NDA and shaped the federal government with the NCP and the Congress.
In Haryana, the social gathering’s efficiency dipped but it surely managed to kind the federal government after stitching a brand new submit-ballot alliance with Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Occasion (JPP).
2020: Blended Bag
The 12 months started with the BJP placing up a dismal present in Delhi, simply weeks earlier than the Covid pandemic engulfed your entire nation.
The saffron social gathering didn’t wrest the nationwide capital from the ruling Aam Aadmi Occasion and witnessed solely a comfort rise in its seat share: from 3 to eight.
However later that 12 months, an in depth win in Bihar with its ally Nitish Kumar got here as a shot in the arm for the saffron social gathering.
The elections – the primary main elections to be held amid the Covid pandemic – helped the BJP stamp its authority in the important thing state the place alliances play an enormous position.
It not solely managed to outflank the Tejashwi Yadav-led RJD-Congress mix but in addition grew to become the senior companion in the Bihar NDA after profitable extra seats than ally JD (U). Nevertheless, preserving its pre-ballot promise it allowed Nitish Kumar to proceed because the chief minister.
2021: Mamata shatters BJP ‘Bengal goals
For the BJP, 2021 began on a disappointing political be aware as Mamata Banerjee led her social gathering Trinamool Congress to a historic win in West Bengal.
A raging pandemic however, the BJP and the TMC fought tooth and nail to win the excessive-stakes battle in West Bengal.
Ultimately, even a large achieve of 74 seats couldn’t make up for the BJP’s failure topple the Trinamool in Bengal.
Regardless of investing an important deal of time and political sources in Bengal, the BJP didn’t safe even half of the 200 seats it had claimed to win in the run as much as the elections.
The saving grace, for the BJP got here in the shape of twin victories in Assam and Puducherry.
In Assam, the BJP did properly to carry on to energy regardless of the anti-incumbency issue and the loss of allies. In Puducherry, the BJP-AINRC alliance helped thwart the Congress-DMK problem to kind the brand new authorities.
Down south, the BJP managed to win 4 seats in Tamil Nadu however its alliance with AIADMK misplaced out to the DMK-Congress alliance.
In Kerala, the social gathering was diminished to zero because it failed to carry on to its solely seat.
Lok Sabha vs Assembly elections: A worrying pattern?
Other than a string of defeats post-2019, the BJP is watching a pattern that could be a trigger for fear because it heads into future electoral battles.
In all of the assembly elections since Modi authorities 2.0 took energy, the BJP has witnessed a dip in its vote share in comparison with what it had bought in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Take the just lately seen West Bengal polls. The social gathering didn’t consolidate the large good points it made in the Lok Sabha elections and witnessed a dip of 2.12 proportion factors.
The pattern signifies that the social gathering has failed to copy its nationwide efficiency in some of the assembly elections.
It additionally factors to the truth that extreme dependence on Narendra Modi has all the time labored properly for the social gathering, particularly in states with robust regional leaders.